by Simon Jones

On the face of it Jay Bruce makes an attractive OF option going into 2012. He managed to slug 32 home runs in 2011 whilst driving in 97 RBI. He'll be hitting in the middle of a talented Reds lineup amongst players like Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto and he plays in theGreatAmericanBallPark, one of the most homer friendly venues in the majors. Additionally he turns 25 at the start of April so we would still expect his career to be on an upswing.

I don't trust ADPs this early in the season – most fantasy players don't draft or mock this early so I never trust that they aren't swayed by automatic computer picks – but having looked around a bunch of early season rankings I find the take on Bruce to be quite interesting. Pretty much every site I've looked at pegs Bruce to be a 36 – 48 pick (effectively making him a fourth rounder in a 12 team league). Now I'm not sure about everyone else, but the thought of picking Bruce as my fourth pick (or third in many of the deeper leagues I play in) would worry the hell out of me. So why is that?

Firstly, I wouldn't ever project Bruce to help you in more than three categories. Bruce has never stolen many bases – his 8 SBs in 2011 were a career high – and his 50% success rate doesn't suggest that will change soon.

The part that worries me though is the average. He hit for high average throughout the minors, but always off the back of very high BABIP numbers. Only once has he broken .260 in the majors (.281 in 2010) and that was fuelled by a .334 BABIP. Even with pretty much four full years in the majors, his K% rate still stands at nearly 24%. I'm not sure there are signs that would project him hitting even .270.

Although Bruce hit a decent .256/.341/.474 line in 2011 with 32 HR, 97 RBI and 84 runs, he was far from consistent. Much of that line was driven by a gaudy May in which he hit .342/.402/.739 with 12 HR, 33 RBI, and 23 runs. Outside of that he didn't manage to post a .260 average in any month and only hit more than four homers in one other month. In fact his post-ASB line of .241/.338/.426 with 11 HR, 40 RBI and 32 runs is not only nothing special, but barely better than his May totals. I'm always reticent to burn a high draft pick on a guy coming off such a poor second half.

Another concern I have with Bruce is that at age 24, you would hope and expect that he would be growing into his power and gaining plate discipline. 2012 might be the year that this finally happens, but the underlying rates don't suggest that is ready to take place. His ISO of .217 in 2011 was identical to his career number. His HR/FB% was 16% as opposed to his career mark of 16.7%. His K% rate of 23.8% exceeded his career rate of 23.1%. These aren't really the numbers of a maturing player.

Overall, I'm not confident that Bruce is worth such a high pick. It is possible that 2012 could be the break out year, but my fear is that by the end of the year his numbers won't look any better than Corey Hart, Adam Jones or Josh Willingham. If Stanton, Granderson or Pence are still on the board at this point then I'd be prepared to take an OF, but otherwise I'll be passing on Bruce and waiting another couple of rounds until the next tier of OFs start getting taken.

What about you?  Will you be targeting Jay Bruce in 2012?  Why or why not?

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